Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/27/18

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11:59

Dan Szymborski: Hello, everyone! We start our 9th consecutive chat!

11:59

Jack: After the injury to Manaea, does Oakland make a last minute SP add? Who are some available names that could help that rotation?

12:00

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure there are a lot of realistic targets left. And really, the way the A’s record is with castoff this year, they can probably sign Scott Kamieniecki and he’ll go 3-1, 3.40 for them.

12:00

John Beasley: Team that is least likely to win a World Series 2018-2027?

12:00

Dan Szymborski: Royals

12:00

Mike: Think the Yankees have what it takes in them to catch the Sox and win the division?

12:00

Dan Szymborski: Potentially, but making up 6 games in 30 is easier said than done. The Red Sox playing .500 makes it a really hard one

12:00

hscer: Did you know the Wikipedia article for hot dogs credulously declares them sandwiches without any discussion?

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Wikipedia’s only good for non-controversial subjects.

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Anything with controversy, different cliques fight it out for supremacy.

12:01

Mrs. Wojadubakowski: A declaration: If a hot dog is a sandwich, ketchup is henceforth a liquid.

12:01

Dan Szymborski: It’s not though.

12:01

CamdenWarehouse: Do you enjoy covering the playoffs more, less, or about the same as the regular season? I can barely tolerate playoff reporting and I’d be curious if writers feel the same way.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: About the same, though when *reading* things, there’s a lot more in the way of mystique and aura fluff to wade through.

12:02

hscer: Do you think Jansen, Minter, Yates, and Parker can out-save Edwin Diaz and the corpse of Cody Allen ROS? This is not a fantasy question.

12:02

hscer: Why would you think that was a fantasy question?

12:02

Dan Szymborski: That’s a lot of roster spots!

12:03

stever20: what chance if Sale and Bauer don’t return do you give a relief pitcher of taking the AL Cy Young?

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Little.

12:03

stever20: When do you think it becomes worry time for the Red Sox with Chris Sale?  That lead that they had is now down to 6(only 5 in the loss column).  Next week they get the Braves and Astros.  It seems like the time for excessive caution has to be over now with Sale.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s a Chris Sale worry, it’s like one win over 30 games.

12:03

greg: Cat update please.

12:04

Dan Szymborski: Galileo was sleeping upstairs last I checked (he doesn’t come down to ask for dinner until 2). Not sure where Mercutio is. Cassiopeia is sitting at the window in my office.

12:04

Austin Meadows: Do these pants make my butt look fat?

12:04

Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:04

selling jeans: Why don’t the most recent 61 games– A’s at 45-16 with a better run differential than every other AL team, including the Red Sox– outweigh the previous 70 in Fangraphs’ projections for rest of season? Particularly when with Anderson, Fiers, Familia, Rodney, Martini, Laureano and an improved Davis and Chapman, the A’s are not the same team anymore?

12:04

Dan Szymborski: None of the projections are based on previous roster.

12:05

Dan Szymborski: And for players in general, the last 3/8th of a season is not a good projection system.

12:05

BCB: Is the NL Central perhaps under-talked about (see AL East), given its run differential?  Or, is that not a good way to think about things?

12:06

Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, people will still be more impressed with actual wins than theoretical shoulda wins!

12:06

Pat G: Hey Dan, Thanks for the chat! I know you don’t necessarily cover fantasy, but you starting Brett Anderson against the Astros tonight?

12:06

Dan Szymborski: No

12:06

Mike: Omar Narvaez is a catcher hitting .284/.378/.436, but his defense is horrible. Could he survive a position change, maybe to third base? Or is he forever destined to be a tweener?

12:07

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a tweener.

12:07

Dbo: I recently found out that they put ketchup on pizza in Brazil, is this a crime against humanity?

12:07

Dan Szymborski: Of course it is.

12:07

Vslyke: Is Colin Moran ever going to find his power at the MLB level? I don’t think he’s a starter without it.

12:08

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll have better power numbers eventually, but I think he’ll still be a fringe starter.

12:08

Dbo: How disappointing of signing would you say Darvish has been for the Cubs?

12:08

Dan Szymborski: Very, but it’s been year one.

12:08

James: Since the shift era began, has there been much appreciable change in batted ball direction, or have guys mostly focused on getting the ball in the air?

12:08

Dan Szymborski: I don’t *believe* there has been.

12:08

Kiermiaer’s Tumescence: Dan. I am finishing the 100% unauthorized biography: Dan Szymborski; A 60 Grade Life. I am casting the unauthorized biopic as well. I have either Jeff Daniels or William Hurt as middle aged Dan. Need help casting young Dan. Any ideas? Maybe the board could help out here?           P.S. Forgetting your fancy vacuum tubes and diodes…who does your gut says wins the World Series?

12:09

Dan Szymborski: The loss of Philip Seymour Hoffman really dived the chance of my biography being made.

12:09

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know enough child actors to know who could play me!

12:10

Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t actually chubby until 11th/12 grade and not a fatass until my 20s, so you could find just some generic blonde kid with his hair parted in the middle?

12:10

v2micca: Been looking at Acuña’s advanced fielding and it is just unexpected.  He’s neutral to negative by DRS and UZR in left field, but extremely positive in Center field.  Is this just SSS wackiness, or is it possible that playing a corner position devalues one of his better attributes, his speed?

12:10

Dan Szymborski: Wackiness

12:10

CamdenWarehouse: there’s no way that’s true, right? you haven’t done 9 straight without missing a week

12:10

Dan Szymborski: It is true.

12:11

Dan Szymborski: Oops, 8 straight

12:11

Dan Szymborski: There’s a double-post in there when I had trouble with Jtocast client and Carson made a second one

12:11

Dan Szymborski: Last one I missed was the 2nd of July

12:11

Small: Kershaw or Kluber rest of career?

12:11

Dan Szymborski: Still kershaw

12:12

v2micca: Do the Braves need to find some days off for Freeman?  He’s a trooper, but he’s been looking a little gassed to me lately.

12:12

Dan Szymborski: He had like a 15 game hitting streak lately! I’m not sure a day off is super helpful really, but that’s something you have to talk with a player

12:12

Bo: Who do you think takes the NL playoff spots?

12:13

Dan Szymborski: Braves, Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks

12:13

Will: Is this year’s rookie pitching crop thinner than usual or is it just hindsight bias?

12:13

Dan Szymborski: Rookie pitchers already have matched last year’s rookie pitcher WAR!

12:14

Dan Szymborski: Though will fall short of 2016

12:14

Dan Szymborski: The relieers are better – 12 WAR vs. 5 for rookies in 2017.

12:14

Jackson: Do the numbers prove closer by committee never works? Why would Boone go with robertson last night and not betances after only pitching one out the night before? If numbers prove closer by committee never works, do you think realistically yankees are going with robertson as closer till chapman return?

12:14

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it shows this.

12:14

Gerald: Do you like prospects? Baseball prospects to be clear.

12:14

Dan Szymborski: Sure. Is this a meme?

12:15

Justin: So who does win Cy if Sale/Bauer injuries linger?

12:16

Dan Szymborski: Kluber, an Astro, or Severino if he continues to get his schildt right.

12:16

Wild Man: Should Greg Bird be sweating Luke Voit’s monster weekend?

12:16

Dan Szymborski: Only shor-ttmer

12:16

v2micca: Giolito seems to be getting on track, Kopech looked good in his debut, Rodon has been solid lately.  How excited should White Sox fans be about their 2019 rotation?

12:16

Dan Szymborski: It’s looking more interesting every day, but probably won’t be *good* yet

12:17

Steve: Any optimism for Lucas Giolito? He’s been good his last couple starts and the peripherals have been there too.

12:17

Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly stopped the bleeding a bit. People were too quick to throw in the towel on a too-young pitcher – a 24-year-old pitcher isn’t a done deal. But he’s not at the level he can be counted on yet

12:17

Dbo: Is a giant log of bologna between a giant sub roll a sandwich? Isn’t that just a big hot dog sandwich?

12:17

Dan Szymborski: Is the bun hinged?

12:18

Kenta Maeda: Should I be dropped in 10-team mixed league at this point?

12:18

Dan Szymborski: In a 10 I would

12:18

Rick C: Can you give us an update on ZIPS’ NL ROY projection?  Acuna has been on a tear while Soto has slowed a little bit.

12:18

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t re-run it, but I believe that they’ve moved much closer

12:18

Jonny: It’s hard to get too carried away with Jeff McNeil given his age, background and lack of longer term track record, but boy, he’s really looked good.  How foolish is it to think of him as the starting 2B next year?

12:18

Dan Szymborski: The Mets have plenty of time to find a bad idea to play over McNeil

12:18

Tim: Would you bet over or under 1.5 World Series for the Braves over the next 10 years?

12:18

Dan Szymborski: Under, but I would for everyone

12:19

Grand Admiral Braun: Cubs have Ben Zobrist under contract thru 2019. They also have Javier Baez and Addison Russell. And Kris Bryant and David Bote. Could you see a scenario where they re-sign Daniel Murphy to a 1-year deal after this season, to be their main second baseman, and trade Addison Russell?

12:19

Dan Szymborski: I don’t relaly expect it.

12:19

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it’ sreally much of a boon

12:19

stever20: Was Cole Hamels the best pickup of the trade deadline looking back on things?  It sure seems like it…..  Especially if it’s a Cubs/Dodgers LDS or LCS…..

12:19

Dan Szymborski: In hindsight, certainly! He’s been on

12:19

Kiermiaer’s Tumescence: HONEST TO GOD..Philip Seymour Hoffman WAS my choice…No Lie. That is scary and amazing all in one.

12:20

Chintz: I don’t like slugging percentage so therefore I don’t like OPS. Wouldn’t OBP plus ISO be better or is that essentially wOBA?

12:20

Dan Szymborski: You need the double-counting of BA in OPS or it doesn’t work

12:20

Dbo: I think Andy Serkis should play the role of Dan’s cats in his biopic

12:20

Joe: Should Luis Castillo be dropped in all leagues at this point? Have him for $1 in keeper, but he has been so rough

12:20

Dan Szymborski: For $1 in keeper

12:20

Dbo: Would you say that you becoming a full time writer for fangraphs is a large reason for the 8 straight chats

12:20

Dan Szymborski: P{robably!

12:20

Dan Szymborski: Though the streak ends next week for Labor Day

12:20

Grand Admiral Braun: Hamels has a 2019 club option of $19M. The buyout is $6M. Probably depends on how the rest of 2018 goes, but picking up the option isn’t crazy. One-year deals are really never bad. HOWEVER, this could prevent the Cubs from adding a potential superstar contract because of the luxury tax.

12:21

Dan Szymborski: It’s more or less a 1-year, $13 million decision since the $9 million is gone either way. I absofrigginglutely sign Hamels to a 1-year, $13 million contract.

12:21

Mike Wazowski: Dodgers rockies or Dbacks to win the division?

12:22

Dan Szymborski: I think the Dodgers are favorite, but at some point they gotta take that lead. They’re probably a sub 50%.

12:22

Grand Admiral Braun: Still can’t believe on one claimed Daniel Murphy (aside from Chicago). Milwaukee could have used him. A bible has been written on how Colorado could have as well…gotta be the personality or world views.

12:22

Dan Szymborski: You can write a whole bible on offensive players the Rockies can use.

12:22

lOsing Season: cedric mullins: optimistic about future contributions or flash of success late season hope only?

12:22

Dan Szymborski: Cautiously optimistic

12:22

Morbo: Its only Monday morning and I already can’t deal with this week. Advice? Random baseball fact to pick up my week? Anything?

12:23

Dan Szymborski: The Braves have to pay Bruce Sutter $9.1 million in 2022.

12:23

hscer: It’s a desperate attempt at creating a meme.

12:23

Austin: You are a meme!

12:23

Guest: Can someone write a post about how over the last 3 calendar years the Reds pitching staff has been worth a total of ~8 war.

12:24

stever20: why doesn’t Blake Snell get any love for the AL Cy Young?  He could easily finish with 20 wins and a 2.00 ERA.

12:24

Dan Szymborski: He could very easily be in the mix

12:24

LenFuego: Do managers/front office people really fool themselves into believing that, e.g., Mitch Haniger has been hot over the past several weeks because he was moved to the leadoff spot, as opposed to he just plain old got hot … so they have to keep him there.

12:24

Dan Szymborski: Not so much as they used to

12:25

Guest: Will Bundy improve on his homer rate?

12:25

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s too crushable

12:25

Dan Szymborski: He’s nto the pitcher he was as a prospect. Speaking of which…

12:25

LenFuego: Giolito is a vastly different pitcher today than he was 4 years ago – losing 6 or 7 mph from your fastball will do that to you.  He is never going to be the pitcher that prospectors dreamed about.

12:25

Dan Szymborski: No, but Giolito could still be a useful pitcher.

12:25

Lunar verLander: I say we go for Daniel Day Lewis. With his commitment to method acting, we’d essentially have TWO Dan Szymborskis.

12:25

Justin: JA Happ working out okay among deadline pickups.

12:25

Jeff: There are conflicting reports on whether the CUbs still get he $6MM from the Rangers if they pick up the option. Some reports say it’

12:26

Dan Szymborski: I was under the impression — possibly wrong — that the Cubs were making the decision and thus paying.

12:27

Dan Szymborski: I saw the conflicting reports. I could probably just call and ask

12:27

Jack: Do you buy Harrison Bader as a 4 WAR player going forward?

12:27

Dan Szymborski: If his defense is anywhere near this level, he’s a Kiermaier four.

12:27

Derek in Little Rock: Dan, do you make futures plays for the playoffs?  And do you simply take underdogs to reflect the random variance of the exercise?

12:27

Dan Szymborski: I rarely find good value in the team World Series numbers.

12:27

JD: Do you think Luke Voit’s success is sustainable or is he just the beneficiary of the Orioles’ horror-show pitching staff? Is .270/.350/.500 possible if he gets 450+ PAs in 2019?

12:28

Dan Szymborski: That’s a bit aggressive

12:28

James: Can we have a post on the stupidest single award votes ever? Like how Barry Bonds went .311/.456/.624 with 39 steals in 1992 and wasn’t unanimous MVP?

12:28

Dan Szymborski: We were SO close to Bichette MVP for a not-good year

12:28

Derek in Little Rock: Dan, do you consider your 8* consecutive chats as impressive as Cal Ripken’s 2,632 MLB games played streak or is it more like Brett Favre’s 297 NFL games played streak? *9 including a double chat!

12:28

Bo: Gausman’s been great in Atlanta, especially since he began pitching exclusively from the stretch, which he says allows him to elevate his pitches better. Is a small tweak enough to create big sustainable results?

12:28

Dan Szymborski: It’s possible. The problem never seemed to be his repertoire, I’d believe a technical fix would be more effective with a guy like Gausman

12:29

hscer: How do I stop not doing important things?

12:29

Dbo: If there was a statistic for Wins above a replacement’s replacement would it be WARR or WAR^2?

12:29

Dan Szymborski: WAWAR

12:29

Big Joey: % chance Corey Seager is ready by opening day? On a side note, do you think he’s going to be brittle his whole career like Tulo?

12:29

Dan Szymborski: I can’t give a %. Too soon to Tuloize him.

12:29

Raddish: I don’t like particular established stats and I need some new ones that I don’t understand well enough not to like yet.

12:29

Rick C: If the season were over today do you think Bader should be NL ROY?  He is leading in WAR and with less PA.

12:29

Dan Szymborski: Defensive numbers are a bit too volatile to me.

12:29

Melissa McCarthy: I will play Dan Szymborski.

12:30

hscer: When did you realize that limes are way better than lemons?

12:30

Dan Szymborski: Most citrus is goods

12:30

Dan Szymborski: Though I hate people bitching about “When life gives you lemons, make lemonade.” Since when are lemons a bad thing? Lemons are delicious.

12:31

Dan Szymborski: Has anyone in history ever been handed a bag of lemons and broke down crying that their life was over?

12:31

Angelus Novus: The Hydra shed his scaly hide/and ran with rams along the mountainside

12:31

hscer: but limeade > lemonade, key lime pie > lemon meringue, need I go on?

12:31

Dan Szymborski: Key limes are sellout limes though.

12:31

HugoZ: What’s Markakis worth to the Braves…one year plus an option year, 28 million?

12:32

Dan Szymborski: That FEELS like a lot, but i’m not positive it would be the worst mistake ever

12:32

LFC Mike: Will the real Kyle Tucker please stand up. Since his demotion in 5 games: 25 AB  14 Hits   6 HR.  I guess ML pitching is a bit better than AAA.

12:32

Dan Szymborski: SSS

12:32

Cone: Is Morales getting enough love generally for this streak? It’s quite something.

12:33

Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately he’s the Dale Long and not the Mattingly/Griffey!

12:33

Dan Szymborski: But yeah, he’s had a nice streak, it’s just nobody’s really paying much attention to the Jays right now until Vlad is up

12:34

hscer: The fun thing about defense is you can still point to SSS after April.

12:37

Rockie Dangerfield: Does any pitcher have a noticeably above-average pickoff skill?  Seems like that would be a great tool for a groundball pitcher to have, to help take care of the occasional BABIP single

12:37

Dan Szymborski: https://thumbs.gfycat.com/SizzlingVibrantJunebug-mobile.mp4

12:37

Uriah: Cont: Heaney is way over any innings threshold he has reached in his career, but Manaea just hit the DL with a shoulder impingement.

12:37

Dan Szymborski: I like the word impingement as it sounds like technical diplomacy language.

12:38

LFC Mike: In your upcoming biopic..in a scene where you are eating…what would be your choice of food for the scene?…Say in a restaurant hatching out your move to Fangraphs with Carson?

12:38

Dan Szymborski: Steak?

12:38

Dan Szymborski: I can eat it without making a mess and really, steak is delicious

12:38

hscer: There’s no evidence of a hot dog flame war for the Wikipedia page, though.

12:38

Big Joey: Gary Sanchez just had a injury-laden season with a fluky BABIP, he’s still a monster offensively going forward right?

12:38

Dan Szymborski: I think so

12:38

Rockie Dangerfield: Does FG have an equivalent to BRef’s sOPS+ that compares a player’s split to the league’s split?

12:38

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ BELIEVE so, but there is always something new I’m discovering

12:38

Morbo: Petition to introduce a rating mechanism for these chats called CHAR chat host above replacement. I’m open to suggestions for the components of CHAR

12:39

Angelus Novus: I think the Orioles specialize in developing relief pitchers, back-up catchers, and to a lesser extent cold-weather bats. Fun!

12:39

Dave: Is Ketel Marte a future star?

12:39

Dan Szymborski: no

12:39

Raddish: Johan Santana not winning the Cy in the middle of his two Cys was among the worst ever of votes. He was the clear choice and finished 3rd. No excuses either as he was a known commodity. It looks even worse when you consider that his career was cut short. Writers wanted to be creative, but Johan didn’t have many seasons left.

12:39

Big Joey: Can anyone explain how JoRam got so good? The guy is going to put up a ridiculous, almost unheard of 45-35 season. How do these players blossom into such talent? I mean, no one saw this coming

12:39

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think anyone saw him becoming this good.

12:40

Dan Szymborski: I wrote more about him.

12:40

Dan Szymborski: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jose-ramirez-is-about-to-crush-history/

12:40

Dan Szymborski: Spoiler: I did not claim to watch him this good.

12:40

Dan Szymborski: wait, what did I just write?

12:40

Scott: Lourdes Gurriel jr had a 11 game multi hit streak.  Morales has a 7 game HR streak and counting.   What impressive feat will Aldemys Diaz pull off this year?

12:42

Dan Szymborski: Most times secretly putting glass in Tulo’s drink?

12:42

Dbo: Do you watch the LLWS? I like to imagine there’s some serious gambling amongst the parents and definitely more than one dad who’s drank too much and become too intense.

12:42

Dan Szymborski: I do! It’s fun watching the kids

12:42

stever20: Does Dave Martinez coach the Nationals after September 30 this year?  Or is he a 1 and done?

12:42

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s back

12:42

Morbo: Allowing emojis should also contribute positively to CHAR

12:42

Alex: Should the Pirates be worried about Chris Archer or do you think he’ll be fine long-term?

12:42

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be fine long-term I think. I believe this was more a 2019 move than a 2018 one.

12:42

TJ: Hate to ask specific fantasy questions, but I’m in a pickle. Keeper question for ya!  I’ve got Juan Soto playing every day and Vlad Jr has been on my bench for a month+…it’s the playoffs and I REALLY need a spot to stream.  Soto or Vlad to have a better 2019?  Can only keep 1!

12:42

Dan Szymborski: Soto’s safer as he HAS the job.

12:43

Manager of Year: Is Mike Schildt eligible? If/When Cardinals make playoffs, I think he should win — the team’s performance is like night and day, from when He Who Shall Not Be Named was manager.

12:43

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think there’s any eligibility criteria for managers

12:43

Crazy Sammi Meatballs: Our NGNL League thinks Andrus is overrated.  I love the kid and have hung my season on him.  Smart?

12:43

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s rated. He’s really good with some flaws.

12:43

GSon: Worse than Johan Santana not winning the Cy Young was Albert Belle not winning MVP in his 52 homer 50 double season.. wouldn’t you agree?

12:44

Dan Szymborski: I think the bad part was that it was VAUGHN over Belle.

12:45

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Belle was *obvious* over Edgar or Valentin

12:45

Mike: Harrison Bader now leading fWAR by a comfortable margin among rookies.  Does he have a better shot at rookie of the year than when you wrote your article?

12:45

Dan Szymborski: Not really – writers just aren’t that fWARmly inclined.

12:45

hscer: any? you can vote Edinson Volquez for MOY?

12:45

Dan Szymborski: I would presume they have the manage?

12:45

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I haven’t voted in the award yet.

12:45

Big Joey: Was last season Judge’s best season?

12:46

Dan Szymborski: Yes, but only because it was so awesome.

12:46

Dan Szymborski: When a guy has an eight-war year, you either assume they’ve had their best season or if Mike Trout, their worst.

12:46

Dave: Limes are essential for tacos. Who wants lemon juice in their tacos???

12:47

Matt: The fact that Yanks/Sox still have 6 H2H games left makes that race a legitimate race though, no? If Yanks can go 4-2 against the Sox, that’s 4 games that need to be made up against other teams…

12:47

Dan Szymborski: If that’s still the position.

12:47

Dan Szymborski: The opposite result divebombs them quicker

12:48

Dan Szymborski: FG has Yankees at 12.5, ZiPS is at 11.

12:48

Matt: So you’re saying that Subway doesn’t make sandwiches?

12:48

Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:48

GSon: Lemon Orchard owners want lemon in everyone’s tacos..

12:48

Hopeless in Cincy: Is Reds ownership undermining an otherwise competent FO?

12:48

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a real case

12:48

Big Joey: Do either Judge or Stanton pop 60 HR?

12:49

Dan Szymborski: Baseball don’t really pop. You stab ’em and nothing happens.

12:49

Dan Szymborski: Enough times and maybe some yarn starts to come out

12:49

Matt: Wait…I’m a little behind….are you telling me that you’re not going to labor on Labor Day?

12:49

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I do much “labor”

12:49

Bo: Does ZiPS still like the Braves’ chances of winning the East significantly more than FanGraphs’ projections?

12:50

Dan Szymborski: Not really – the main source of disagreement was the Nats and the Nats have fallen far enough back that even a rosier look at the Nats doens’t help ’em

12:50

Hello: What player have you been most wrong about in the last 5 years?

12:50

Dan Szymborski: Phil Hughes?

12:50

Hello: What player has the industry consensus been most wrong about in the last 5 years?

12:50

Dan Szymborski: Probalby Jose Ramirez?

12:50

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Judge?

12:50

Matt: What about Rosanne Barr? I think she’d play a pretty good Szym.

12:50

Bread Gardner: So what if the hinge on my hot dog bun rips apart? It’s a sandwich then?

12:51

Dan Szymborski: Intent.

12:51

Dan Szymborski: If you ripped it off intentionall so that it wasn’t nestled, but intended to be held together by the vertical forces of your hand(s), then it would be a sandwich

12:51

Dan Szymborski: A car doesn’t become a bicycle if you bust two of your tires running over nails

12:52

Dan Szymborski: Though it may become a reliant robin if you break one

12:52

GSon: Not doing much labor only clarifies the need for someone to supervise !!

12:52

Dan Szymborski: I’m a baseball writer, not much coal mining involved.

12:52

Bread Gardner: We might have the ninth season in which a team reaches 100 wins but fails to reach the playoffs proper (i.e. LDS, LCS, or WS, not just the stupid one-and-done WC playoff). We could have the seventh season in which there are three 100-win teams, and it would be the first time they all came from the same league. There’s even an (extremely) outside shot at four or five 100-game winners, also all from the same league! This is bad for baseball. Exciting! But bad. This paints a kind of damning picture of parity vis-a-vis super teams and tanking.

12:52

Bread Gardner: So, earlier this week I did the WAR math out for two 25-man rosters: one constructed from players of only the top four AL teams (BOS, NYY, HOU, CLE), the other from the other 26 MLB teams.  The total team WAR is 106.1 to 96.9 in favor of Team Everybody. Team Everybody has no more than three members from any given team?and WAR advantages only at C, backup C, 1B, CF, UTIL, and bullpen (Team Everybody gets the WAR value of six closers who largely represent their team’s only relief threat, and Team Top 4 AL must “make do” with the Yankees bullpen and how it spreads its own wealth). This is bad for baseball. Exciting! But bad.

12:52

Bread Gardner: What would you say is the best type of M&M?  There is a correct answer, and it definitely isn’t almond.

12:52

Dan Szymborski: The classics

12:53

Dan Szymborski: but almond is good

12:53

Dave: Ugh, I’m sick of Big Lemon

12:53

Dan Szymborski:

12:53

Justin Upton’s Wine Glass: I would have taco with a Chet Lemon?

12:53

TRANE: How can a team in 2018 be 1-18 when a certain pitcher starts?

12:54

Dan Szymborski: Badness + Luck = Mets

12:54

Richard Hammond: …and if you attach rocket boosters to a Reliant Robin, it becomes a space shuttle!

12:54

WSH: We talk about how unstable defensive metrics are in the short term with Acuña but we accept that there’s no volatility with Bader. How stable is Vader’s WAR given his defense being the primary driver?

12:54

Dan Szymborski: We do?

12:54

Bread Gardner: Your car analogy falls apart.  I think a more apt comparison would be that removing a wheel from a bicycle does not a unicycle make due to lack of intent (though I would argue it certainly *does* make it a unicycle).

12:54

hscer: just turn the emoji things off next time lol

12:54

cuee: Is there any merit to stripping out blowout games when looking at run differential of teams? As a Phillies fan, I feel like their mediocre run differential somewhat underrates their true talent because I feel like they’ve had more games where they’ve thrown in the towel and put out a quad A reliever who has given up a bunch of runs than their opponents have.

12:54

Dan Szymborski: No.

12:54

Dan Szymborski: Blowouts are the games most likely won by the better offense.

12:55

Matt: So if I add one wheel to my hot dog it becomes a unicycle?

12:55

Dan Szymborski: If you intentionally do it and intend to ride it, it makes a unicycle, just a really stupid one.

12:55

TRANE: Was talking about HOMER BAILEY though

12:55

Dan Szymborski: The weird thing about Homer Bailey is that a homer bailey is where you lock up all the home runs to keep them from happening.

12:56

Dan Szymborski: Homer Bailey should be known as Homer Parole.

12:56

Morbo: It depends if you intend to ride the hotdog

12:56

Brian CashGod: if this chat were a form of wheeled transport, what would it be?

12:56

Dan Szymborski: A Saab story.

12:56

Morbo: ugh not i have that mental image of Matt riding a hotdo

12:56

Morbo: hotdog*

12:56

Homer Bailey: am I a sandwich?

12:56

Matt: Theory: 2 dirty water dogs attached with two strategically places skewers are a steam roller.

12:56

David: Does Austin Riley get a September call up?

12:56

Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:57

Bread Gardner: We’re getting into some interesting psychophilosophical territory with this whole “intent” thing.  I mean, if I take my hot dog unicycle and accidentally run you over, I’m still the guy who ran you over, regardless of intent.

12:57

Dan Szymborski: It matters for your sentence.

12:58

Dan Szymborski: You have to have the reckless intent to make a hot dog sandwich

12:58

hscer: someone put the crap emoji on my statement about getting rid of the emojis. I find that stupid, and if they do it here that’s also stupid

12:58

Trixie: Are you surprised the Padres are so bad this year?  Looks like they may lose 100 games.

12:58

Dan Szymborski: No

12:58

Wild Man: then its manwichslaughter

12:58

Dan Szymborski: I love the last five minutes of my chats, where everything just falls apart

12:58

Q: Wouldn’t the Jays help themselves more by buying good will with fans with a Vlad Jr. promotion? What are the chances he gets called up this year?

12:59

Dan Szymborski: He should’ve already!

12:59

Dan Szymborski: At this point, they might as well just hold it off.

12:59

Bread Gardner: Dan, that’s also the first five minutes of your chats, and also the intervening five-minute intervals.

12:59

Brian CashGod: we love it too

12:59

Dbo: is it a sandwich if I use to hinged rolls as separate pieces of bread

12:59

Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:59

Dan Szymborski: Just like donut burgers are sandwiches

1:00

Morbo: manwichslaughter sounds delicious

1:00

stever20: i miss the old days of real September callups

1:00

TRANE: Unless they are trading for Trout, how do you forsee the Braves logjam at pitching working out?

1:00

Dan Szymborski: I think Teheran is traded this offseason

1:00

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Severino over Snell for the AL Cy? Not that Snell should win over Sale or the other deserving guys, but I’d vote for Snell way before Sevy. 6.0 RA9 WAR to 4.2.

1:00

Morbo: is it still a grilled cheese if i use a bun and a tomato?

1:00

Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:00

Bread Gardner: Dan chats are the most fun chats of all chats.

1:00

hscer: since Toronto’s fan base is all of Canada, is there less reward for appealing to them than if, say, the White Sox who have half a city had a massive prospect that they could theoretically call up? just theoretically

1:01

Dan Szymborski: NHL preseason starts in a couple of weeks – at that point, the Blue Jay fanbase is 17 people in Toronto

1:02

Cave Dameron: Hosmer’s fWAR is currently @ -0.7.  Surely…his clubhouse presence has made up the difference to justify his $20M for this season.

1:02

Sad Mr. Met: Tell me about Jeff McNeil, Szymborski. What you thinking here, 80 hit tool, 90 hit tool? I’m sensing some Wade Boggs about the lad, but we’d settle for Gwynn at this point

1:02

hscer: I see I’ve been crap emoji targeted now

1:02

Ben: Is Bread Gardner part of a sandwich?

1:02

Morbo: Dan’s CHAR for today 5.368

1:02

Dbo: whoa, grilled cheese with tomato is a melt

1:02

Dan Szymborski: It’s only a melt if there’s another, more important protein being enveloped by the melted cheese.

1:02

Morbo: I have no idea it that is a good CHAR as I’ve just instituted the system but I represents the single chat CHAR leader

1:02

Dbo: If there is anything besides cheese as the filling then it is a melt

1:02

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think a tomato makes it a melt

1:03

Dan Szymborski: Or you have a very strict grilled cheese guideline

1:03

hscer: that had better not be you, either

1:03

kevinthecomic: Does former Met Anthony Young still hold the record for most consecutive losses?  23 or something?

1:03

Dan Szymborski: Believe he still does.

1:03

Ben: If a team hits back to back to back home runs, is that a Homer sandwich

1:03

Dan Szymborski: If a team makes back to back to back awful free agent signings, that’s a Hosmer sandwich

1:03

Dbo: I’m a grilled cheese purist

1:03

tb.25: is it a melt if the cheese isn’t melted? some of us prefer cold, shredded cheese

1:03

Dan Szymborski: dafuq?

1:03

Brian CashGod: do we have a CHAR leaderboard for the fangraphs staff yet?

1:04

Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, I leave you all to your failure grill cheeses.

1:04

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone! As a reminder, I am a full-time employee of FanGraphs and this is now where you find the vast majority of my content (the exception is the occasional ESPN piece). I can also be found at DSzymborski on Twitter.

1:05

Dan Szymborski: And since I’ve been asked a few times lately, I’m DSzymborski on Steam and Zim#1236 on Blizzard.

1:05

Dan Szymborski: If you play FFXIV or GW2, just ask – those are more niche

1:05

hscer: wouldn’t a homer sandwich is homer-not homer-homer?

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